REAL NEWS - NOT from the Mainstream Propaganda Machine...

http://stockmarketchartanalyst.blogspot.com/

Here are a number of articles I read this morning, from my favorite "alternative" news sources:

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Shadow Government Statistics:
Analysis Behind and Beyond Government Economic Reporting

http://www.shadowstats.com/

If you've watched my last few updates on the market, you'll notice that I'm quite cynical when it comes to any economic report put out by the government (and I'm also very skeptical that earnings reports aren't continually being fudged. Just look at the recent SEC case against Dell as an example). This site gives you the REAL scoop when it comes to the government's reports of economic data...

And here is a PRIME example of what I'm talking about:

Nine States Did Not File Initial Claims Data Due To Labor Day, Hundreds Of Thousands Of Estimates In Data "Beat":
The BLS has announced that as a result of the Labor Day weekend, 9 states (among which the biggest one California) did not report initial claims data to the bean counters, so instead the government had to "estimate" what the data would have been

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/nine-states-did-not-file-initial-claims-data-due-labor-day-hundreds-thousands-estimates-data

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Show Me the Recovery:
While second-quarter sales increases are encouraging, weak cash generation is worrisome.

http://www.cfo.com/article.cfm/14522495

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Claims of Recovery But Results Nowhere To Be Found:
A weekly excerpt from the subscription issue of The International Forecaster, taken from Bob Chapman's weekly publication.

http://theinternationalforecaster.com/International_Forecaster_Weekly/Claims_of_Recovery_But_Results_Nowhere_To_Be_Found

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Economists Cut U.S. Growth Forecast - AGAIN!:
Projected U.S. economic growth for the rest of this year and next was revised down for a third month in a row by a panel of about 50 economists.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Economists-cut-US-growth-rb-1119878296.html?x=0

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Hell Yes It’s Class Warfare! Part 1:
There is an intentional misconception out there in the market place of talking points and political discussion – it is that liberals are waging class warfare on the wealthy.

http://cons-lie.com/2010/09/07/hell-yes-its-class-warfare-part-1/

Hell Yes It’s Class Warfare! Part 2:

http://cons-lie.com/2010/09/08/hell-yes-its-class-warfare-part-2/

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The Wholly Fallible Ben Bernanke:
Despite three crucial errors at the Federal Reserve, its chairman is still revered as if he is the pope – while we pay the price.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/cifamerica/2010/sep/08/ben-bernanke-federal-reserve

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Rome is Burning:
There is a critical point that I fear the commentariat is just not getting.

http://modeledbehavior.com/2010/09/07/rome-is-burning/

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In The Headlights:
The toils of summer are bygone now. The days grow shorter and America stands in the darkling road of its own prospects like a dumb animal frozen in the blinding light of approaching fury.

http://www.kunstler.com/blog/2010/09/in-the-headlights.html#more

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Death By Globalism:
Have economists made themselves irrelevant? If you have any doubts, have a look at the current issue of themagazine, International Economy, a slick publication endorsed by former Federal Reserve chairmen Paul Volcker and Alan Greenspan, by Jean-Claude Trichet, president of the European Central Bank, by former Secretary of State George Shultz, and by the New York Times and Washington Post, both of which declare the magazine to be “ahead of the curve.”

http://www.counterpunch.org/roberts09012010.html

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And finally, the winner of the "Doom and Gloom Award" goes to this piece, which I found to be a fascinating read...

Doomsdayers Not Cynical Enough:
[Like your editor, Rick’s Picks forum regular Wayne Razzi (aka “Red Will”) is a veteran floor-trader who grew up in South Jersey. When I asked him if he would like to contribute a guest commentary, I was not expecting the provocative tour de force that unfolds, step by step, below. In the essay, Will asserts nothing less that that the impending collapse of our economic system was meticulously engineered by financial and political sociopaths. Let me attest that his is not some whack-o conspiracy theory; rather, it is the closely-reasoned argument of a highly intelligent person who values truth sufficiently to have searched for it, in the form of an answer to a profoundly disturbing question, for many years. Judge for yourself whether his conclusions tally with your own thoughts as to why the American Dream is about to go bust. RA]

http://news.goldseek.com/RickAckerman/1284012060.php

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That's it for today...
I hope you enjoy reading these articles as much as I did!

Happy Trading!...
the zigzagman

Payrolls drop by 125K, jobless rate falls - Yahoo! Finance

Christopher S. Rugaber, AP Economics Writer, On Friday July 2, 2010, 8:38 am

WASHINGTON (AP) -- A wave of census layoffs cut the nation's payrolls in June for the first time in six months, while private employers added a modest number of jobs. The unemployment rate fell to 9.5 percent, its lowest level in almost a year.

Employers cut 125,000 jobs last month, the most since last October, the Labor Department said Friday. The loss was driven by the end of 225,000 temporary census jobs.

Businesses added a net total of 83,000 workers, an improvement from May. But that's also below March and April totals. The nation has 7.9 million fewer private payroll jobs than it did when the recession began.

Analysts expected private payrolls to rise by about 110,000, according to Thomson Reuters. The report indicates that businesses are still reluctant to hire as the economy slowly recovers form the worst recession since the 1930s.

The unemployment rate fell as 652,000 people gave up on their job searches and left the labor force. People who are no longer looking for work aren't counted as unemployed.

All told, 14.6 million people were looking for work in June.

Counting those who have given up their job searches and those who are working part time but would prefer full-time work, the underemployment rate edged down to 16.5 percent from 16.6 percent in May.

Payrolls Drop by 125K, Jobless Rate Falls:

US Economic Recovery of Lies:

http://thedailybell.com/1096/US-Economic-Recovery-of-Lies.html

Slow-motion recovery keeps unemployment high...

High unemployment isn't going away. The slow pace of economic growth shows the recovery is too weak to generate enough jobs for 15.3 million unemployed people. Layoffs are contributing to the problem. That's evident from an elevated number of weekly claims for jobless aid. Two government reports Thursday offered new evidence on all of those fronts. For many Americans, it doesn't feel much like a recovery. The unemployed face fierce competition for job openings. Those with jobs are watching their paychecks shrink. A growing number of people are at risk of falling into foreclosure. And only people with the most stellar credit are likely to get a new loan. "We're out of recession, but the recovery is not going to bring a whole lot of smiles," said Joel Naroff, of Naroff Economic Advisors. – AP

Dominant Social Theme: Growth is hard to come by and patience wins the day.

Free-Market Analysis: The trouble with economic reporting in the West is that it simply does not tell the truth. This AP story is a good example. Its main point is that the American "recovery" is not going to be strong enough to provide enough jobs for the 15.3 million unemployed. Now this supposition has two problems. First of all there is no "recovery" as it is commonly understood, and second we assume that the 15 million out-of-work figure is based on a 10 percent unemployment rate. In fact, that figure is very much in dispute because of the way American federal government analysts count – and then don't count – the unemployed. Many savvy observers believe that the unemployment rate is twice as high, at 20 percent, and we believe it to be even higher than that.

Anyway, as far as the US recovery itself goes, this is a most misleading conversation within the mainstream press. Even during less severe downturns, Western economies have continually degraded and this is no ordinary downturn as we have pointed out many times. This time around the fiat money system basically collapsed. The entire system has been on life-support for about two years now. What kind of extrication can be expected from such a quandary?

We figured that to save the system, central banks would have to pump an aggregate US$100 trillion into Western economies over a period of time. We're not sure how far along they are, or if they'll reach that figure but the amounts of debt-based money that has been created and loaned out or stuffed into commercial bank coffers is staggering. It hasn't all circulated but watch out (for hyper-inflation) if it does. Of course, that was before this latest sovereign debt crisis. Since central banks do all sorts of things they don't report – engaging in various kinds of swaps and derivatives trading, who knows what the final number may be. Here's some more from the AP article:

The economy grew at a 3 percent annual rate from January to March, according to a new estimate released by the Commerce Department Thursday. The new reading, based on more complete information, was slightly weaker than an initial estimate of 3.2 percent a month ago. Consumers spent less than first estimated. Same goes for business spending on equipment and software. And the nation's trade deficit was a bigger drag on economic activity. Those factors led to slower growth last quarter than first estimated.

In a separate report, the Labor Department said the number of newly laid off workers filings claims for unemployment benefits fell to 460,000 last week. But the latest level of claims is actually higher than it was at the start of the year. By this point in the recovery, economists had hoped claims would be in the 400,000 to 425,000 range. That would signal more robust job growth was on the way.

Sounds grim? It gets worse. This article was written just as first quarter American growth was revised DOWN – adjusted from an annual rate of 3.2 percent to just 3 percent, according to the Commerce Department. The expected growth rate was to have been about 3.4 percent. It certainly didn't get there.

In fact, there are plenty of statistics that could be marshaled to put this current recovery into focus. But when one starts to do that a trend emerges, and it isn't a pretty one. We recently came across an article in the socialist Monthly Review. The article, "Capitalism, the Absurd System – A View from the United States," was co-written by Robert W. McChesney, whom left-wing Utne Reader in 2008 listed as one of their "50 visionaries who are changing the world".

The article has some fascinating charts, including one that shows GDP growth shrinking from four percent in the 1940s to a little over one percent in the 2000s. The chart is attributed to the Bureau of Economic analysis and we're not sure if it adjusted for inflation. There is another telling chart in the article, showing how wages have fallen. The article describes the trend this way: "Worker productivity is much greater than it was back in 1975, but very little of this increased wealth actually goes to workers themselves. ... The wages of U.S. manufacturing workers have fallen rapidly during the last three and a half decades as a share of value added in U.S. manufacturing. The median wage of all nonagricultural workers has stagnated over the same period."

Given this context, it is interesting to see how the article explains the non-performance of Western capitalism – specifically in the United States – by turning to Marx for enlightenment as follows: "Marx's work provides searing insights on how to understand a society that, at the surface, appears to be one thing but, at its deeper productive foundations, is something else. Marx argued that a core contradiction built into capitalism was between its ever-increasing socialization and enhancement of productivity, and its ongoing system of private appropriation of profit."

Of course Marx never did seem to explain adequately how workers were deprived of their share of a growing pie of profits, and when it comes to explaining how current capitalist trends mighty be countered, the authors are similarly fuzzy: "Mere state ownership of key productive forces is not enough to create a socialist society; the people must exercise a sovereign rule over these productive forces and society as a whole, and the society must be organized to promote collective needs."

As usual, we wonder who exactly will "exercise a sovereign rule over these productive forces." Additionally, we would ask, when it comes to the organization of society "to promote collective needs," exactly who will be doing the organizing. This is always where collectivist solutions tend to fall down. They get hazy about who is going to provide the leadership that will lead the people to the promised land.

We think we can explain all this a little more succinctly using some free-market thinking. The problem with Western economies for at least the past 100 is central banking. It is central banks, by overprinting money that cause first booms and then busts. The power elite, rarely if ever mentioned in Marxian analysis, stands behind the central banking system – which began as an Anglo-American invention but has now spread around the world. As US Congressman Ron Paul has pointed out, the central bank is an engine of centralization. After every boom cometh a bust and after every bust more businesses go bankrupt and more of the middle class is washed away.

That's why the AP's statement about the American recovery certainly stretches the truth. (Of course it's not fair to pick on AP – the recovery meme is a promotion of the power elite and is virtually everywhere these days throughout mainstream US media.) The point is that Western recoveries under a central banking regime are inevitably fainter and fainter. Each recovery is weaker than the last while crises grow stronger and deeper.

As we recall Bell feedbacker F. Beard recently pointing out, the system is set up so that people "buy at the top" – take out loans and generally expand portfolios during the good times and then are faced with certain consequences when the economy turns sour. The problem is always the same: Loans are suddenly under water as debtors discover that the equity of their investments is worth less than what they owe. Bank lenders know the inevitability of this. Many borrowers do not.

Is the current economic crisis is some sort of turning point? In the past the power elite has shoveled money at commercial banks and securities firms – and then proclaimed a recovery when the stock market began to move up. Even when the recovery was weak and limited the elite could rely on the mainstream media to forcefully proclaim victory over recession, inflation, deflation, etc.

But with stock markets rising and the media crowing, it was never really possible to examine the extent of the damage in a prolonged or realistic way. That's changed now. The Internet has allowed real discussions of the economic fraud of the so-called modern capitalist system. And the system itself has so badly failed in the past few years that it is probably much more difficult to cover-up the damage this time.

Conclusion: For those apt to defend the system, the next few years likely shall prove both difficult and unforgiving. We anticipate continued conversations about alternative forms of money and different ways of approaching the economy. The elite of course shall suggest further centralization and central banking control. But we have a feeling that this will be a hard argument to make. The mainstream press has lost credibility as regards these matters. Articles such as this one published by the AP will be an increasingly hard sell to an increasingly informed public.

32 States Now Officially Bankrupt: $37.8 Billion Borrowed From Treasury To Fund Unemployment; CA, MI, NY Worst:

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/32-states-now-officially-bankrupt-378-billion-borrowed-treasury-fund-unemployment-ca-mi-ny-w

Submitted by Tyler Durden 05/21/2010

Courtesy of Economic Policy Journal we now know that the majority of American states are currently insolvent, and that the US Treasury has been conducting a shadow bailout of at least 32 US states.

Over 60% of Americans receiving state unemployment benefits are getting these directly from the US government, as 32 states have now borrowed $37.8 billion from Uncle Sam to fund unemployment insurance. The states in most dire condition, are, not unexpectedly, the unholy trifecta of California ($6.9 billion borrowed), Michigan ($3.9 billion), and New York ($3.2 billion). With this form of shadow bailout occurring, one can only wonder how many other shadow programs are currently in operation to fund states under the table with federal money.The full list of America's 32 insolvent states is below, sorted in order of bankruptedness (in billions of dollars):

California $6,900
Michigan 3,900
New York 3,200
Penn. 3,000
Ohio 2,300
Illinois 2,200
N.C. 2,100
Indiana 1,700
New Jersey 1,700
Florida 1,600
Wisconsin 1,400
Texas 1,000
S.C. 886
Kentucky 795
Missouri 722
Connecticut 498
Minnesota 477
Georgia 416
Nevada 397
Mass. 387
Virginia 346
Arkansas 330
Alabama 283
Colorado 253
R.I. 225
Idaho 202
Maryland 133
Kansas 88
Vermont 33
S.D. 24
Tennessee 21
Virgin Islands 13
Delaware 12

"Employment Will Come Back In America, It's Just Pay That Won't"

http://www.businessinsider.com/robert-reich-the-future-of-american-jobs-2010-4

Robert Reich | Apr. 12, 2010, 11:18 AM

Many of my students at Berkeley who will be graduating in June are worried about the job market. I understand their worries. But they and other new college grads have less cause for concern than most American workers. Let me explain.

Since the start of the Great Recession in December 2007, the U.S. economy has shed 8.4 million jobs and failed to create another 2.7 million required by an ever-larger pool of potential workers. That leaves us more than 11 million jobs behind. (The number is worse if you include everyone working part-time who’d rather it be full-time, those working full-time at fewer hours, and people who are overqualified for the jobs they’re in.)

This means even if we enjoy a vigorous recovery that produces, say, 300,000 net new jobs a month, we could be looking at five to eight years before catching up to where we were before the recession began.

Given how many Americans are unemployed or underemployed, it’s hard to see where we get sufficient demand to support a vigorous recovery. Outlays from the federal stimulus have already passed their peak, and the Federal Reserve won’t keep interest rates near zero for very long. Although consumers are beginning to come out of their holes, it will be many years before they can return to their pre-recession levels of spending. Most households rely on two wage earners, of whom at least one is now likely to be unemployed, underemployed or in danger of losing a job. And even households whose incomes have returned are likely to be residing in houses whose values haven’t—which means they can’t turn their homes into cash machines as they did before the recession.

While consumers have been shedding their debts like mad—often simply by defaulting on loans—their remaining burdens are still heavy. At the end of last year, debt averaged $43,874 per American, or about 122% of annual disposable income. Most analysts believe a sustainable debt load is around 100% of disposable income, assuming a normal level of employment and normal access to credit—neither of which we are likely to have for some time.

Some economic cheerleaders say rising stock prices are making consumers feel wealthier and therefore readier to spend. But most Americans’ biggest asset is their homes. The “wealth effect” is felt mainly by the richest 10%, whose net worth is largely stocks and bonds. The top 10% accounted for about half of total national income in 2007. But they were only about 40% of total spending. A vigorous jobs recovery can’t be based on 40% of what was spent before the economy collapsed.

What’s likely to slow the jobs recovery most, however, is the indubitable reality that many of the jobs that have been lost will never return.

The Great Recession has accelerated a structural shift in the economy that had been slowly building for years. Companies have used the downturn to aggressively trim payrolls, making cuts they’ve been reluctant to make before. Outsourcing abroad has increased dramatically. Companies have discovered that new software and computer technologies have made many workers in Asia and Latin America almost as productive as Americans, and that the Internet allows far more work to be efficiently moved to another country without loss of control.

Companies have also cut costs by substituting more computerized equipment for labor. They’ve made greater use of numerically controlled machine tools, robotics and a wide range of office software.

These cost-cutting moves have allowed many companies to show profits notwithstanding relatively poor sales. Alcoa, for example, had $1.5 billion in cash at the end of last year, double what it had on hand at the end of 2008. It managed this largely by cutting 28,000 jobs, 32% of its work force. But for workers, there’s no return. Those who have lost their jobs to foreign outsourcing or labor-replacing technologies are unlikely ever to get them back. And they have little hope of finding new jobs that pay as well. More than 40% of today’s unemployed have been without work for over six months, a higher proportion than at any time in 60 years.

The only way many of today’s jobless are likely to retain their jobs or get new ones is by settling for much lower wages and benefits. The official unemployment numbers hide the extent to which American workers are already on this downward path. But if you look at income data you’ll see the drop.

Among those with jobs, more and more have accepted lower pay and benefits as a condition for keeping them. Or they have lost higher-paying jobs and are now in new ones that pay less. Or new hires are paid far lower wages than the old. (In January, Ford Motor Co. announced that it would add 1,200 jobs at its Chicago assembly plant but didn’t trumpet that the new workers will be paid half of what current workers were paid when they began.) Or they have become consultants or temporary workers whose pay is unsteady and benefits nonexistent.

This shift also helps explain why the unemployment rate for Americans with college degrees is now only 5%, while it is 10.5% for those with only a high-school degree, and 15.6% for Americans with less than a high-school diploma. The jobs of well-educated Americans, although hardly immune to foreign outsourcing and technological displacement, have been less vulnerable to these trends than the jobs of Americans with fewer years of education.

The likelihood, therefore, is that as the economy struggles to recover and today’s jobless begin to find work, the median wage will continue to fall—as it did between 2001 and 2007, during the last so-called recovery.

More Americans will be working, but for pay they consider inadequate. The approaching recovery will be tepid because so many people will lack the money needed to buy all the goods and services the economy can produce.

Americans will once again be employed, but they will also be back on the downward escalator of declining pay they rode before the Great Recession.

A Shout Out for Scruffy...

GATA Bill Murphy's Lemetropole Cafe market letter...

http://agoracom.com/ir/ECU/forums/discussion/topics/412960-a-shout-out-for-scruffy/messages/1360171#message

Good morning Bill. As I read through the morning (non-mainstream) news I see a huge pervasive rot threatening all aspects of our financial lives.

Here is a short list of what we are up against:

1 A network of elitists bankers who have a get out of jail free card, who contribute to both sides of political campaigns, who migrate employees to key positions in the administration and in the regulatory agencies that are supposed to assure fair market practices.

2 A history of million dollar fines (if any) for billion dollar crimes and no jail time for the biggest crooks.

3 Total control of mainstream media to the point of effective propaganda. Has anyone read or heard anything re the recent CFTC bombshells on MSNBC?

4 Regulations that destroy any transparency in our markets. The big bankers are protected by the regulators that are commissioned to protect us against them.

5 Naked shorting by the elite insiders to the detriment of all of us investors. Every naked short sale recorded and is identifiable, yet I have never heard of a single person, or clearing house, or brokerage receiving as much as a fine let alone jail time.

6 Evidence repeatedly provided to regulators and compliance agencies of the US that is NEVER acted on. Not one of the exposures leads to cleaning up of the markets, to firing of the idiots in charge, to jail time for those obviously complicit graft enablers, nor intervening in the crimes in progress.

7 A strong $ policy based on propaganda and manipulation. Does anyone with one eye and two brain cells believe the inflation #s? ... the unemployment numbers? ..that we have "turned the corner" or have begun the recovery? ..that the ObamaCare will cut the deficit? .. that the treasury is not the biggest buyer of treasuries via buy-backs?

8 Gambling casinos (crimex/nymex/lbma) that set the prices on physical commodities.

9 "Physical Markets" that have no physical.

10 Bribes offered to keep options holders from demanding physical delivery.

11 ETF’s that can’t be audited. Anyone who has read the prospectus and thinks that he/she is investing in physical should not be allowed to wield a check book.

12 Rules that allow options to be settled with (fraudulent) ETF shares.

13 A Fed that can keep its books hidden from the public. I was going to say from congress, but congress is part of the problem and we cannot count on them to act responsibly.

14 A government backed stock market manager (PPT) to get people to continue to "invest" in a stock market balloon while savings returns are miniscule to nonexistent.

15 A steady move to shun new purchases of US treasuries by the rest of the world.

16 Most moves up recently in the US $ have not been because of anything that indicates the $ is healthy, but because the currencies of the rest of the world are down graded by US based rating agencies. This while ALL currencies are pushed around by markets dominated by US and UK bankers.

17 Assassination attempts on whistle blowers.

18 And not the last, not the least, but one of the most egregious, a congress and administration that panders to special interests and totally disrespects, ignores, and denigrates the citizens, as it shoves this nation down the socialistic toilet.

And once again, as has often been repeated throughout history, gold and silver are the last shelter and protection one can have against corrupt public and financial institutions.

Thanks Bill and all the GATA organization. Many people are now in a better position to see what is going on and to protect themselves.

Scruffy

All’s Well?...

Here are a couple of uplifting titles to stories in today’s mainstream media:

From MSNBC: “Stocks boosted by upbeat economic reports”

From CNNMoney.com: “Stocks pop on jobless claims”

Wow. I don’t know about you, but I’m optimistic.

But wait. Could these titles be misleading? I don’t think I need to answer that.

Apparently the good news was 439,000 new people filed jobless claims in the week ended March 27, down 6,000 from an upwardly revised 445,000 the previous week. And outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas Inc. showed that planned job cuts accelerated substantially in March.

So, almost half a million people file new jobless claims in a week and employers accelerate layoffs and that’s considered good news these days. I’d really hate to hear some bad news.

In addition to this “good” news, we have a new national employment report published by payroll giant Automatic Data Processing Inc. that indicates private employers unexpectedly shed 23,000 jobs in March despite concensus analysis calling for an increase in jobs. And the Commerce Department reports that U.S. construction spending fell to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $846.23 billion, the slowest rate in over seven years, as activity softened in every major sector from homebuilding to public construction projects. Meanwhile, personal consumption expenditures increased 21.7 times more than personal income over the most recently reported month according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis.

That’s not to say that every bit of news that comes out is completely negative. The Commerce Department reported yesterday that a barometer of capital spending by businesses climbed. Non-defense capital goods orders, excluding airplanes, rose 2.0% in February. But that followed a big drop in January of 4.4%, suggesting businesses uncertain about the economy remain cautious about spending plans.

And there’s even some actual good news out there. The Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing index rose to 59.6 in March from 56.5 in February, marking eight straight months of expansion in the sector.

All in all, however, we still firmly believe that the bad seriously outweighs the good. None of the real issues that brought us into the 2008 financial meltdown have been addressed. Banks’ balance sheets are still terrible, especially if you take out the impact of accounting changes that were allowed last year. The overhang of derivatives continues to grow. And as bad as the real estate situation is, it’s about to get a lot worse.

Look, we don’t like to be the bearer of bad news all time. But we have to tell you what we really think based on all the research and analysis that goes on over here. And what we think is that the far wall of the hurricane is still heading toward the economy. When it’s going to hit we really can’t say, though it will probably be sooner rather than later. The catalyst will likely be fear caused by one single and unforeseen or known but ignored event (a black swan). The event will create a panic in the markets that will then create a chain reaction like a house of cards falling. So as painful as it may be for your psyche, it’s prudent for you to remain wary of this “recovery.” All is certainly not well.

http://www.caseyresearch.com/displayCdd.php?id=389