Lobbyists Gone Wild: The K Street Hustle & Obamacare...

By Keith Johnson

Oooh snap! Looks like we’ve been right all along. All the big K Street money pumped into the House and Senate has been overwhelmingly one-sided in favor of Obama’s horrendous new healthcare legislation. Go figure. According to a study released over the weekend by “The Center for Public Policy”, a non-partisan public interest think tank in Washington D.C., it is estimated that a record $120 million was spent lobbying for health reform. In addition to direct lobbying, some of the top firms also rewarded members of Congress with campaign contributions through political action committees and individual lobbyist donations. The largest of these firms, Patton Boggs LLP, contributed more than $55,000 almost exclusively to Democrats.

Patton Boggs represents Bristol-Myers Squibb, one of the largest pharmaceutical companies in the nation and the eighth largest corporation in the United States. On January 21, 2010, Patton Boggs was one of several big name health insurance, pharmaceutical and hospital lobbying organizations whose top executives got together to throw a fundraiser for Massachusetts Senatorial candidate Martha Coakley in hopes of landing her the Democratic seat and the crucial 60th vote needed to pass the healthcare takeover bill. The other top firms that participated (along with a list of the companies they represent) are as follows:

Capitol Hill Strategies:

Amgen—the nation’s largest biotechnology firm
BIO—a muli million dollar biotechnology firm
Merck—the largest pharmaceutical company in the world
Pharmaceutical Researchers and Manufacturers of America–
a trade group representing pharmaceutical and biotechnology companies

Grover Park Group:

Blue Cross—a federation of 39 health insurance organizations
Pfizer—a pharmaceutical company, ranking number one in sales in the world

Duberstein Group:

Novartis—a pharmaceutical company ranking number one in revenues and three in sales
Sanofi-Aventis—a pharmacuetical company that ranks number four in sales worldwide

Mehlman, Vogel, Castagnetti:

Humana—the fourth largest health insurance company in the United States
Abbott Laboratories—a multi billion dollar pharmaceuticals healthcare company
General Electric—multi billion dollar corporation dealing in many health related sectors

Elmendorf strategies:

UnitedHealth Group—the nations largest insurance company

Heather Podesta & Partners:

Cigna—the nation’s fifth largest health insurance company
Eli Lilly—a multi billion dollar pharmacuetical company that ranks tenth in sales

Of the over 17,000 lobbyists in Washington D.C., The Center for Public Integrity ranks Patton Boggs as numero uno. In terms of healthcare reform, they are followed by Alston and Bird, who represent Aetna, the nation’s third largest health insurer. Coming in at number three is Foley Hoag, who also represent Pfizer as well as Eli Lilly, Amgen and Merck. Tied for fourth place are Podesta Group and Capitol partners. Dutko Worldwide rounds out the top five and they also lobbied for UnitedHealth, PhRMA, and medical device firm Medtronic Inc.

Of those lobbying firms’ big name clients, Pharmaceutical Researchers and Manufacturers of America alone spent $26.1 million lobbying for Obamacare in 2009, making it the single most expensive lobbying effort in history. During the week leading up to the vote on the legislation, PhRMA launched a multi million dollar ad blitz in 43 districts of potential swing Democrats to help secure passage. And in this election cycle, PhRMA has contributed $30,300 to Dem’s compared to $13,000 to Repub’s. Overall, PhRMA has spent well over $100 million on ad campaigns promoting health care reform legistlation. According to his wikipedia bio, PhRMA’s outgoing CEO Billy Tauzin ”was a key player in 2009 healthcare reform negotiations that produced pharmaceutical industry support for White House and Senate efforts. Reportedly, proposals for Medicare Part D cost reductions and permitting drug importation from Canada were dropped in favor of $80 billion in other savings.” That’s right, he helped write the stinking bill.

The largest health insurance providers in the nation are UnitedHealth Group, WellPoint, Aetna, Humana and Cigna. Ever since the healthcare debate began over a year ago, shares of Cigna, UnitedHealth Group and WellPoint have been up an average of 120%.

Upon passage of the bill, health insurer’s stocks soared with Aetna hitting a 52 week high. The share price of Cigna surged 375% compared to 46% for the stock market overall (as measured by the S&P 500) since November 2008.

It should be noted that Aetna has been a major supporter and campaign contributor to the campaigns of Max Baucus (D-MT) of the Senate Finance Committee who received $56,250 in donations and Senator Joe Lieberman (I-CT) who received $110,000. Todd M. Schoenberger, Managing Editor of “Taipan’s Tipping Point Alert” wrote recently that “One day following a vote in favor of healthcare reform legislation, stocks turned higher led by the healthcare sector. Despite the concern of many Wall Street analysts, any negative sentiment surrounding the healthcare sector about higher taxes and pressure on bottom lines quickly subsided as everything from managed care to medical device stocks traded higher with heavy volume.”

Hospital shares also surged. The day after the House of passed the bill, shares of Health Management Associates, Tenet Healthcare and Community Health Systems all jumped 11%, 9%, and 6% respectively.

It should be clear by now that the major players in the healthcare industry overwhelmingly lobbied in support of Obamacare and have and will continue to reap vast rewards.

So then you may ask who exactly is this great villain the Democrats have dubbed as the evil “health insurance industry”? The name that consistently comes up is America’s Health Insurance Plans (AHIP). According to wikipedia, “America’s Health Insurance Plans (AHIP) is a national political advocacy and trade association with about 1,300 member companies that sell health insurance coverage to more than 200 million Americans and is thereby funded by the premiums they pay.”

But AHIP not only represents the top health insurance companies in the nation, it also represents the smaller companies that will no doubt be thrown under the bus or absorbed by larger concerns. So it makes sense why they were chosen to act as the controlled opposition. They were the ones often cited as the big bad insurance industry that Nancy Pelosi referred to in response to a heckler at a Democratic rally who yelled “You’ll burn in Hell for this.” AHIP President Karen M. Ignagni often plays the villain as she did on the Oprah Winfrey show opposite Sicko Director Michael Moore.

But this two-faced organization showed their true colors a long time ago. Miami Herald journalist John Dorschner reminds us in a March 23rd article that “In November 2008, just days after Obama’s landslide victory, America’s Health Insurance Plans, a trade group, made a stunning announcement, saying it favored universal coverage and supported a law that would stop insurers from rejecting applicants because of preexisting conditions. “Universal coverage is within reach,” the group said in a historic press release. After being adamantly opposed to reform during the Clinton years, AHIP said it had changed its mind — based on one condition: Any reform plan had to require that all individuals have insurance or pay stiff penalties.”

And just recently, AHIP has come out in full support of Obamacare. According to a TIME Magazine article: America’s Health Insurance Plans (AHIP), the industry trade group, has agreed to sign on to a new, 50-state health care reform implementation effort, provisionally called Enroll America, which is being organized by Ron Pollack of the pro-reform group Families USA. “We are participating in it,” says AHIP spokesman Robert Zirkelbach. “The goal is to get everyone covered.”

On the night the House passed the dreaded Obamacare legislation, Obama stated, “Tonight, we pushed back on the undue influence of special interests. … We proved that this government — a government of the people and by the people — still works for the people.” Sure—Here’s a guy who received more then three times the campaign contributions from the pharmaceutical industry than John McCain or $3.58 for every$1 received by his Republican competitor. And those stats come straight out of the Center for Responsive Politics, a Washington-based research group.

Yeah, Obama can come up with some eloquent words, but as we’ve pointed out, this is nothing but a windfall for the big insurance companies, the pharmaceutical industry and device manufacturers. It’s an outright raping of the American people by a government of the special interests and by the special interests.

http://republicbroadcasting.org/?p=7709

------------

Keep calling it a conspiracy theory America...

“Communism, or more accurately, socialism, is not a movement
of the downtrodden masses, but of the economic elite, because
communism, is about monopoly capitalism.”

-- Gary Allen, "None Dare Call It Conspiracy"



It's only 93 pages, you can read it in a single sitting,
and you can read it and download it for free at this link:

If you haven't read it, do so tonight.

http://www.scribd.com/doc/2297676/conspiracy-Gary-Allen-None-Dare-Call-it-Conspiracy-english-rarereactor

VIDEO - Fundamental & Technical Analysis of the S&P 500's Daily & Weekly Charts:

Every Sunday evening, I post a video here and on a few other sites that shows the technical analysis of the $SPX daily and weekly charts. I also show the Dow Jones Industrial Average, the Nasdaq Composite, and the Russell 2000 charts, and talk about what kinds of news, earnings reports, and economic reports to pay attention to in the coming week.

Happy Trading next week,
zigzagman

The Government's Big Secret:

The Government's Big Secret:

Dear Reader,

The federal government’s big secret isn’t that its spendthrift ways are destroying the country; it’s that it knows its spendthrift ways are destroying the country and it’s doing absolutely nothing to remedy the situation. In fact, all recent government action has exacerbated the decline. And it knows that too.

For instance, “The 2009 Annual Report of the Board of Trustees of the Federal Old-Age and Survivors Insurance and Federal Disability Insurance Trust Funds” (link here) reports, in black and white, that the Social Security unfunded liability is a whopping $15.1 trillion. Furthermore, the “2009 Annual Report of The Board of Trustees of The Federal Hospital Insurance and Federal Supplementary Medical Insurance Trust Funds” (link here) reports that the Medicare unfunded liability is an even more staggering $36.4 trillion.

These “trustees,” mind you, are not some outside government watchdog group either. The Managing Trustee of both boards is none other than Secretary of the Treasury Tim Geithner. And if Geithner’s aware of the situation, you know Obama and Congress are, yet you never hear anything about this reported in the mainstream media. What you get instead is pushed-through health care legislation that will add even more costs to Medicare – and the mainstream media cheers.

Want more? The 254-page “2009 Financial Report of the United States Government,” which is produced by the Treasury Department, is full of goodies illustrating just how deep in the quagmire we are.

Check out the chart below, which shows the government’s projection of debt held by the public in relation to GDP. And keep in mind that this is not what’s called the “National Debt,” which includes intragovernmental debt but just what can be considered “net debt,” or debt held by the public.

[Note: Debt held by the public is all the federal debt held by individuals, corporations, state or local governments, foreign governments, and other entities outside the U.S. Government. Intra-governmental debt is the Government Account Series securities held by government trust funds, revolving funds and other special funds, which are generally required to invest in U.S. Treasury securities. The federal government competes with private industry for credit, therefore the level of debt held by the public shows how much of the nation’s wealth has been absorbed by federal government expenditures. Interest on the public debt is a direct expense of the taxpayers paid in cash by the Treasury. Intragovernmental debt and its interest, on the other hand, aren’t necessarily paid in cash from the current budget. Instead, it often represents a liability on a future budget until the government agency holding the debt needs to cash it in (i.e. when the baby boomer social security payments come rolling in).]




Research shows that when debt reaches 75% to 100% of a country’s GDP, a default or restructuring may not be far behind. The U.S.’s net debt is already 57.4% of nominal GDP. So, by the government’s own predictions, we could expect a debt default or restructuring around 2020.

The document also reveals that rapidly growing interest costs on the national debt together with spending on major entitlement programs will absorb approximately 100 cents of every dollar of federal revenue by 2020. This is astounding. By the government’s own calculations, interest on the debt and spending on entitlement programs will eat up everything the U.S. Government takes in before a penny is spent on anything else. That’s a recipe for disaster if ever there was one. And this document was written before Obamacare was on the books.

Now, going back to that bit about the government knowing its recent actions are only going to exacerbate the decline, I’d like to point to a recent article from moneynews.com which reports that even the former director of the Congressional Budget Office, Douglas Holtz-Eakin, thinks Obamacare will bankrupt the U.S.

Here’s an excerpt from the article:

While the Congressional Budget Office reported that President Barack Obama’s healthcare bill would lower federal deficits by $138 billion, the budget office “is required to take written legislation at face value and not second-guess the plausibility of what it is handed,” says former CBO director Douglas Holtz-Eakin.
“So fantasy in, fantasy out.”

Strip out all the gimmicks and budgetary games and rework the calculus, a wholly different picture emerges: The healthcare reform legislation would raise, not lower, federal deficits, Holtz-Eakin writes in The New York Times.

“Removing the unrealistic annual Medicare savings ($463 billion) and the stolen annual revenues from Social Security and long-term care insurance ($123 billion), and adding in the annual spending that so far is not accounted for ($114 billion) quickly generates additional deficits of $562 billion in the first 10 years,” Holtz-Eakin points out.

“And the nation would be on the hook for two more entitlement programs rapidly expanding as far as the eye can see.”

With that in mind, it looks like the U.S. could reach the danger zone of debt to GDP well before 2020. Something to think about…
Politicizing Monetary Policy

By Vedran Vuk
Politicians are notorious for economically illogical stands and incredulous claims. Just last week, the public was told that insuring 30 million more Americans would reduce healthcare spending. Now, a group of 130 Republicans and Democrats are calling on the U.S. Treasury to label China as a “currency manipulator” in order to justify enacting import tariffs.

With this label, lower Chinese interest rates could be considered a business subsidy. Hence, this would qualify as an unfair trade practice enabling retaliatory tariffs. Of course, lower interest rates are indirect subsidies. Notice the jubilation on Wall Street when Bernanke lowers rates. But if China is guilty of currency manipulation, then the U.S. and every other country on Earth is an equal culprit.

Congress’s plan is so deeply ignorant that it’s difficult to respect its position as a legitimate opinion and not a gaffe or a malicious Machiavellian maneuver. Every central bank in the world manipulates currencies, including our own Federal Reserve. Perhaps, Congress will next request the EPA to confirm that forests actually do have trees.

First of all, the defined role of every central bank is to maintain some form of price stability. Naturally to do this, central banks must manipulate their own currencies through interest rates. The second common goal is to maintain full employment. Keeping the currency down to promote exports certainly falls into this role.

Failure to adequately manipulate currencies deserves more criticism than China’s export driven strategy. After all, every central bank fails at the job of manipulating currencies, eventually causing inflation and other severe macroeconomic disruptions.

Last year, politicizing monetary policy was news, but few seem as concerned today. Remember the attacks launched at Ron Paul’s Federal Reserve Transparency Act (H.R. 1207). When Paul’s bill was introduced, lobbyists were immediately hired, think tanks published on the topic, and pundits of all stripes made their opinions known.

The bill was reportedly a gross politicization of the Fed, although it did no such thing. The act only promises to expand the General Accountability Office’s audit powers to cover transactions with foreign banks and governments, transactions made under the FOMC, and certain other currently secretive operations. These audits would be performed long after Fed decisions.

GAO audits would be no more disruptive than releasing FOMC minutes three weeks after a rate decision. Sure, these releases can cause temporary market fluctuations but nothing that would unravel the Fed’s ability to perform currency manipulation – sorry, I meant monetary policy. One could even make the case that Paul’s bill would force the Federal Reserve to be more honest about transactions, thereby reducing politicization and promoting independence.

While Ron Paul’s bill does little to politicize the Fed, the threat of import tariffs over an interest rate disagreement practically takes monetary policy by the reins. Other than Congress directly nationalizing the Fed, little else could be done to politicize monetary policy more so.

Politicizing monetary policy doesn’t stop with Chinese interest rates. Chris Dodd’s new financial overhaul bill would give U.S. Presidents the power to appoint the President of the New York Federal Reserve Bank.

Dodd’s quote on the matter is simply brilliant. Dodd, the intellectual giant, says, “[this process ensures the New York President is] not handpicked by the very bankers the New York Fed is responsible for regulating.” U.S. Presidents have made countless Wall Street-affiliated picks for the Secretary of the Treasury throughout the years. Most recently, this includes Henry Paulson and Robert Rubin, both former high-ranking Goldman Sachs employees. There is no reason to expect more prudent presidential picks for this position either.

When it comes to economics, most Congressmen are fairly clueless. But apparently on monetary policy, they make their usual economic insanities look like pieces of ancient wisdom. After the healthcare bill, who could predict that things would get worse so soon? Well, here we are with Dodd’s bill and a looming China tariff war. Politicizing monetary policy is in full effect.

The Memristor

By Doug Hornig
[Ed. Note: Every month in Casey’s Extraordinary Technology, alongside our investment recommendations, we try to bring you a little entertainment and maybe even a little enlightenment, in the form of new scientific breakthroughs you absolutely need to know about, new products you ought to try, or just plain cool things you’ll want to see. We call this section Research and Development, or R&D for short, and most months it includes one new scientific advance of merit and one new gadget on the horizon. These aren’t investment opportunities today, usually. Just fascinating science. Remarkable achievements. Cool gadgets. And other extraordinary technology. What follows is an example of one such R&D article written by our own Doug Hornig.]

The fundamental architecture of a computer hasn’t changed much in half a century. At the heart of the machine are the same basic languages and chip designs as were there in the 1960s. Sure, computers are much, much smaller. And much, much faster. And they do a whole bunch more – thanks to the flexibility of software that can be written to address nearly any task. But at their root, computers are all composed of just three basic parts: the inductor, the resistor, and the capacitor.

These three fundamental building blocks of the circuit, assembled together in increasingly complex arrays of thousands, millions, or even billions together on a chip, make up the brains of a computer. And for decades it was thought that they were it. The whole enchilada. The only parts necessary to complete any computer, from a PC to a brain. But unlike most things in the engineering world, there was no real mathematical proof this was the case. And this bothered UC Berkeley professor Leon Chua. So he set out to write one.

Along the way to proving the logic of computers, he noticed a piece missing from the puzzle. A fourth basic building block of logic. What he dubbed the “memristor.” You see, way back in 1971, Chua was examining the four properties that make up an electronic circuit: A) electric charge, B) current (or the change in charge over time), C) magnetic flux (the strength of the magnetic field a current produces), and D) voltage (or the change in magnetic flux over time). These four properties could interact in only six possible ways, or combinations – A-B, A-C, A-D, B-C, B-D, and C-D. When he dug in, it was clear to him that there were devices or logical relationships for only five of these combinations. But one, the relationship between magnetic flux and charge, went curiously undefined.

Chua’s proposed device – a small component that could essentially remember what kind of charge last passed through it – filled the gap. But it went relatively unnoticed in the field of computer science for decades after, with just a handful of very interested researchers furthering its study. Why? Well, as far as Chua or anyone else knew, memristors just did not exist. It’s not easy to study something you can’t find, after all.

So, why is this discovery from 1971 suddenly news now? Well, earlier this decade, Stan Williams, a senior researcher at Hewlett-Packard, set out to build a fast, low-power switch by placing two microscopic – atom-level, in fact – resistors in a stack, using the current in one to flip the resistance in the other. He was successful in building the device, but couldn’t seem to predict how it would actually behave. After some digging, three years’ worth apparently, he discovered why – he needed a memristor in his model of the device to complete the logic.

And the reason was simple. He had inadvertently built the first known memristor itself.

And the benefits of the device quickly became clear. It is far faster than any kind of memory circuit on the market today, uses far less power, and has the unique benefit that when you turn the power off, it maintains its “memory.” Not quite getting it yet? Imagine this: yank the plug out of your computer right now as you are reading this. Come back two hours later and plug it back in. Snap, it is instantly back on, exactly where you left off. Neat trick, eh?

And the original author, Chua, is also hard at work on hybrid devices that combine the memristor with traditional components to produce new effects. Like a switch that can store data without dissipating any energy at all.

Don’t expect these devices on store shelves anytime too soon, though. This stuff is so cutting edge, it might take anywhere from a few years to a couple of decades to get out of the lab and into your laptop bag.

The applications of the new device don’t stop with standard computers either. For the past few years, scientists have been building, and discovering, devices and even organisms that appear to behave like memristors. Just as you don’t notice how many particular cars are on the road until you buy the same one, science has a tendency not to notice something all around it until the idea really sets in.

As the community studying this unique new technology catches up to Chua’s work, they have also been taking note of another aspect. Chua proposed, quite astutely, in his very first paper on the subject, that these memristors might be the exact mechanism that makes synapses in the human brain possible. Early research indicates this may indeed be the case.

For decades, computer researchers have toiled away with little success, attempting to build a simulated brain. If memristors do prove to be the key to unlocking the secrets of how the brain works, it won’t just change computing forever, it will change our whole definition of what a computer is and what it is capable of.

The government is sinking its resources into the area now, too. DARPA, the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency – which has brought us such low-impact inventions as the Internet – recently launched the Systems of Neuromorphic Adaptive Plastic Scalable Electronics Program, SyNAPSE, which sponsors scientists to help create an "electronic neuromorphic machine technology that is scalable to biological levels." In other words, a biologically complex computer with an adaptive brain. A true thinking machine.

Skynet, 1. Humans, 0.

Friday Funnies

During their first joint visit to Haiti, George W. Bush appears to wipe his hand on Bill Clinton’s shirt after shaking hands with a crowd of Haitians. Truthfully, I find this video more insulting than funny, but here’s the clip.
Now here are some pictures and cartoons poking fun at some current and former politicians.







And one cute one…




And with that, dear reader, I bid you good day. David won’t be back from Argentina until mid-next week, so I’ll be here with you on Monday. Until then, thank you for reading and for subscribing to a Casey Research service. Have a great weekend!

Chris Wood
Casey Research, LLC

http://www.caseyresearch.com/displayCdd.php?id=381

ANX - ADVENTRX Pharmaceuticals Inc. Sets Meeting With FDA to Discuss ANX-530 NDA:

ADVENTRX Sets Meeting With FDA to Discuss ANX-530 NDA:

Press Release Source: ADVENTRX Pharmaceuticals, Inc. On Friday March 26, 2010, 8:30 am EDT
SAN DIEGO, March 26 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/

ADVENTRX Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NYSE Amex: ANX) today announced that it will meet the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) in Washington D.C. during the last week of April 2010 to review the Company's New Drug Application (NDA) for ANX-530 (vinorelbine injectable emulsion) and the FDA's refusal-to-file letter.

ADVENTRX had requested a face-to-face meeting with the FDA to understand its requirements and define the path to a successful filing of an ANX-530 NDA at the earliest possible time.

"We look forward to meeting with the agency next month to clarify the necessary steps for filing the ANX-530 NDA this year," said Brian M. Culley, Chief Executive Officer of ADVENTRX.

ADVENTRX submitted an NDA for ANX-530 to the FDA in December 2009. The Company announced on March 1, 2010 that it had received a refusal-to-file letter from the FDA regarding that submission. In the letter, the FDA indicated that the data included in the December 2009 NDA submission from the intended commercial manufacturing site was insufficient to support a commercially-viable expiration dating period. The FDA identified only this one chemistry, manufacturing and controls (CMC) reason for the refusal to file. No clinical or nonclinical issues were identified.

About ADVENTRX Pharmaceuticals:

ADVENTRX Pharmaceuticals is a specialty pharmaceutical company whose product candidates are designed to improve the performance of existing cancer treatments by addressing limitations associated principally with their safety and use. More information can be found on the Company's web site at www.adventrx.com

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/ADVENTRX-Sets-Meeting-With-prnews-3495683683.html?x=0&.v=1

SLXP - Salix Pharmaceuticals Ltd. Gets FDA Approval For XIFAXAN®

SLXP - Salix Pharmaceuticals Ltd. Gets FDA Approval For XIFAXAN®

RALEIGH, N.C.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Salix Pharmaceuticals, Ltd. (NASDAQ:SLXP) today announced the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has granted marketing approval for XIFAXAN® (rifaximin) 550 mg tablets for reduction in risk of overt hepatic encephalopathy (HE) recurrence in patients 18 years of age or older.

HE is a serious disorder caused by chronic liver failure, resulting in cognitive, psychiatric and motor impairments. This approval was supported by findings from the largest randomized trial of maintenance therapy in HE conducted to date, which assessed the efficacy and safety of XIFAXAN 550 mg tablets and demonstrated a statistically significant and clinically meaningful reduction in the risk of overt HE recurrence.ii The labeling for XIFAXAN 550 mg tablets includes data on both the risk reduction of overt HE recurrence as well as risk reduction of HE-related hospitalization.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/FDA-Approves-XIFAXAN-550-MG-bw-3571437432.html?x=0&.v=1

This is a live intraday chart:



Here is a quote page that shows the Outstanding Shares, the Float, Average Daily Volume, all of which are very reasonable numbers for the sector this company is in:



Here is a chart showing last night's and this morning's Extended Hours Sessions:



Here is a daily chart that shows SLXP closed at $33.52 and it opened today's regular session at $36.15 with a high of the day at $38.00 even:

Radian Group Inc.- RDN is Up Over 17% Today...

Nice day for RDN (NYSE), up over 17%...

I've done my research on this one, and it's fast becoming one of my favorites.

Radian Group Inc. (NYSE: RDN), headquartered in Philadelphia, provides private mortgage insurance and related risk management products and services to mortgage lenders nationwide through its principal operating subsidiary, Radian Guaranty Inc. These services help promote and preserve homeownership opportunities for homebuyers, while protecting lenders from default-related losses on residential first mortgages and facilitating the sale of low-downpayment mortgages in the secondary market.

It's up over two dollars today, and I don't see any news behind this big move.



It's breaking up into Blue Sky territory on much higher than average Volume, and all of the technical indicators are looking very Bullish on this daily chart:

Happy Trading, and keep this one on your radar...
zigzagman

A Campaign Begins Today:

A Campaign Begins Today:

Mitt Romney
March 22, 2010

America has just witnessed an unconscionable abuse of power. President Obama has betrayed his oath to the nation — rather than bringing us together, ushering in a new kind of politics, and rising above raw partisanship, he has succumbed to the lowest denominator of incumbent power: justifying the means by extolling the ends. He promised better; we deserved better.

He calls his accomplishment “historic” — in this he is correct, although not for the reason he intends. Rather, it is an historic usurpation of the legislative process — he unleashed the nuclear option, enlisted not a single Republican vote in either chamber, bribed reluctant members of his own party, paid-off his union backers, scapegoated insurers, and justified his act with patently fraudulent accounting. What Barack Obama has ushered into the American political landscape is not good for our country; in the words of an ancient maxim, “what starts twisted, ends twisted.”

His health-care bill is unhealthy for America. It raises taxes, slashes the more private side of Medicare, installs price controls, and puts a new federal bureaucracy in charge of health care. It will create a new entitlement even as the ones we already have are bankrupt. For these reasons and more, the act should be repealed. That campaign begins today.

— Mitt Romney is the former governor of Massachusetts and author of No Apology.

http://corner.nationalreview.com/post/?q=NzgyMzA1NWUwNjA5OTg2ZTUzMTliYzQyOTM1ZmIzNTI

$SPX - End of the Week Chart & Fundamental Analysis

Here is the video I make every weekend that analyzes the daily and weekly charts of the S&P 500's ($SPX) daily and weekly charts. I also mention Fundamental Analysis items you need to be aware of in the coming week.

Happy Trading next week...
zigzagman

Stocks to Watch on Monday March 22nd, 2010: ANX - HDY - RNN - GSL - IDT - POL - FORD - GENT

Three AMEX Stocks: ANX - HDY - RNN:

ANX - There may be some news released next week, giving a date for the the face-to-face meeting with the FDA about the Refuse to File Letter on the NDA for their drug ANX-530.



HDY - It closed above the 15 Moving Average on above average Volume on Friday. All of the technical indicators are showing upticks, and look much more Bullish than they have in the past.



RNN - May be starting another run here. Look at what happened the last time the CCI crossed up through the +100 line. Volume picked up on Friday, and most of the technical indicators are showing improvement.



Three NYSE Stocks:

GSL - Has broken above a previous level of Resistance on above average Volume. Most of the technical indicators are showing signs of improvement.



IDT - It may be a bit too late to catch this Runaway Train, but Volume keeps increasing as it rallies, and all of the technical indicators look very Bullish.



POL - Had a HUGE pop up on Friday with over five times average daily Volume. Every one of the technical indicators are very Bullish.



Two NASDAQ Stocks:

FORD - Has broken above all levels of Resistance on above average Volume, and every technical indicator is upticking very sharply and are looking Bullish.



GENT - Also broke above all levels of Resistance on Friday on very high volume. All of the technical indicators are looking Bullish at this time, except the Accumulation/Distribution line (black). That was most likely due to massive profit taking on the huge pop up it did.



Happy Trading next week,
zigzagman

Is The United States Headed For A Commercial Real Estate Crash Of Unprecedented Magnitude?

Will commercial real estate be the next shoe to drop in the ongoing U.S. financial crisis? While most eyes are on the continuing residential real estate disaster, the reality is that the state of the commercial real estate market in America could soon be even worse. Very few financial pundits are talking about this looming disaster but they should be. The truth is that U.S. commercial property values are down approximately 40 percent since the peak in 2007 and currently approximately 18 percent of all office space in the United States is now sitting vacant. That qualifies as a complete and total mess, but the reality is that the commercial real estate crisis is just starting.

In fact, the commercial real estate market is likely to get a whole lot worse. It is being projected that the largest commercial real estate loan losses will be experienced in 2011 and the years following. Some analysts are estimating that losses from commercial real estate at U.S. banks alone could reach as high as 200 to 300 billion dollars. To get an idea of how rapidly the commercial real estate market is unraveling, just check out the chart below....



Does that look like things are getting better to you?

And unfortunately, all indications are that the commercial real estate market is going to get much worse.

According to Real Capital Analytics, the default rate for commercial property mortgages held by all U.S. banks more than doubled in the fourth quarter of 2009 and may reach a peak of 5.4 percent by the end of 2011.

But even that estimate may be way too conservative as we shall see in a moment.

According to a recent report by the Congressional Oversight Panel, approximately 3,000 U.S. banks are currently classified as having a risky concentration of commercial real estate loans. All of them are small to mid-size banks which have been already severely weakened by the recent financial crisis.

So could the crisis in the commercial real estate market lead to a massive wave of failures among small and mid-size banks?

Count on it.

In fact, the FDIC has acknowledged that the number of banks on its "problem" list climbed to 702 at the end of 2009. To get an idea of just how bad that is, keep in mind that only 552 banks that were on the problem list at the end of September 2009, and only 252 banks that were on the problem list at the end of 2008.

Are you starting to get the picture?

So how are banks responding to this commercial real estate quagmire?

They are rapidly raising loan standards and they are dramatically reducing the number of loans they are making.

Just a few years ago, the number of commercial real estate loans was exploding, but now the bubble has burst, and as the chart below reveals, commercial real estate lending has absolutely fallen off the map....



What is making things even worse is that owners of commercial real estate are starting to walk away from properties that are heavily "underwater" just as many residential homeowners have been doing. This has caused default rates to start shooting through the roof.

One of the latest and most high profile commercial property owners to do this is Vornado Realty Trust. Earlier this month Vornado indicated that it would walk away from two heavily underwater loans totaling $235 million.

In the past commercial property owners would be very hesitant to do such a thing, but the reality is that the stigma has faded for these kind of "strategic defaults". Just as with residential real estate, these kinds of defaults have almost become accepted practice now.

The number of defaults is likely to skyrocket even further with so many commercial real estate loans scheduled to rollover in the next few years.

You see, commercial real estate properties typically carry mortgages with lives of 5 to 10 years. A vast array of commercial real estate loans made between 2000 and 2005 are coming up for a rollover, but because credit standards have tightened, borrowers may find that they simply do not qualify for refinancing.

In fact, a report entitled "Commercial Real Estate at the Precipice" estimates that even under lenient lending standards, approximately 57 percent of existing commercial real estate mortgages will not qualify for refinancing.

That is a nightmare.

But if you apply more conservative lending standards, it is estimated that almost two-thirds of all commercial real estate borrowers will not qualify for a rollover.

So what is going to happen to the U.S. commercial real estate market when large numbers of borrowers start walking away from their "underwater" loans and about half of those who want to rollover their loans don't qualify for refinancing?

What do you think that is going to do to commercial real estate prices?

Somebody better do something, because both the commercial and the residential real estate markets in the U.S. face a crisis of unprecedented magnitude.

But most Americans still have no idea that the great economic machine that their forefathers built is falling to pieces all around them. They would rather numb the pain by watching the latest episode of American Idol or by catching up on the latest round of celebrity gossip.

But that is not going to stop what is about to happen.

http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/archives/is-the-united-states-headed-for-a-commercial-real-estate-crash-of-unprecedented-magnitude

DRWI - DragonWave Inc. - Closed Up +6.27% Today!:

Last night at 9:22 pm ET, in the post just below this one, I posted that DRWI had put out some very good news about a share buyback it was planning to do.

I also stated that I thought it would be a good time to get IN this stock.

And they also announced this news on March 15th:

Cosmoline has selected DragonWave as its exclusive backhaul provider for a national 4G mobile WiMAX network across Greece. (there's a link to this story in the post below this one)



As you can see from this final Quote, DRWI closed up over 6% today, and it's daily chart is looking even more Bullish today than it did after yesterday's closing bell...



This was a very nice upward move for DTWI today on strong Volume. It closed just pennies below the high of the day, and every one of my Technical Indicators are upticking sharply. Closing above the 15MA on it's first attempt is very Bullish. If it can get through the middle Bollinger Band area at $11.50 or so, there's a real good chance it will run up to the upper BBand at around $13.50 or so.

That is my top price target for this stock before it meets any major Resistance. If the CCI gets turned back at the zero line, Stochastics will also be turning back down at the fifty line. If that happens, I'll lock in my profits and wait to see if it can rise above these two levels of Resistance before jumping back in...

A Stock to Watch: DRWI - DragonWave Inc. Moves to Support Its Stock Price:

DragonWave Inc. Moves to Support Its Stock Price:

It appears that DragonWave (DRWI) is fighting back against whatever forces were causing the free fall in its stock. The company announced a normal course issuer bid of "up to 10%" of the float this morning. It is always hard to know if companies will follow through on such promises, because we often see announcements like this of potential stock buybacks (i.e. X amount of authorized shares we "could" buy), but in reality they are just announcements and companies many times only buy a fraction of the shares authorized. But from a strategic point of view, it's an interesting move even if they don't follow through all the way since it shows the company has the willpower to support the stock price.

Either way it's a nice comfort to shareholders to see an engaged management. Most of the time you see executives more than happy to line their own pockets with extra cash rather than defend shareholders. Those darn socialist Canadians, thinking so different than Americans...

Via the company press release:

The Board of Directors of DragonWave Inc. announced today that it has authorized the purchase of common shares of the company equal to up to 10% of the public float by way of a normal course issuer bid on the Toronto Stock Exchange and/or the NASDAQ Global Market.

The normal course issuer bid is subject to acceptance by the TSX. If approved by the TSX, purchases pursuant to the normal course issuer bid will be made through the facilities of the TSX and/or the NASDAQ Global Market. The normal course issuer bid will be subject to the rules of the TSX and applicable securities laws, including the rules pertaining to the maximum number of shares that may be purchased in any one day.

DragonWave will pay the market price at the time of acquisition of common shares purchased through the facilities of the NASDAQ Global Market and/or the TSX. All common shares acquired by DragonWave under the normal course issuer bid will be canceled.

DragonWave is initiating the normal course issuer bid because it believes that, at certain times, the market price of its common shares may not reflect the underlying value of its business and its future prospects.

The objective of the normal course issuer bid is to provide capital appreciation and market stability for the benefit of DragonWave's shareholders. DragonWave has not previously engaged in a normal course issuer bid.

For reference, DRWI has 36.25M shares, almost all of which are floating (34.2M). 10% of the float would be roughly 3.4M shares - at today's prices this would be around $33M if they bought all 10%. A quick look at Yahoo Finance shows just over $100M in cash on the balance sheet.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/193707-dragonwave-moves-to-support-its-stock-price?source=yahoo

Here is an additional news release from March 15th that is very good news for this company:

Cosmoline has selected DragonWave as its exclusive backhaul provider for a national 4G mobile WiMAX network across Greece:

For more information, visit their website at www.cosmoline.com

http://www.dragonwaveinc.com/main.asp?id=news&page=releases&newsid=182

Here is a one month-daily chart for DRWI, and it looks to me like it's bottoming after a hard fall. That's when I usually like to enter a Swing Trade on the Long side. Here's my read of this chart, and why I think it's turning Bullish:

5MA - The share price closed above the 5 Moving Average, and closed at the high of the day.

CMF - Chaikin Money Flow (solid green), On Balance Volume (red) and Accumulation/Distribution (black), which are my three Money indicators are all upticking.

CCI - The Commodity Channel Index (dark blue) just gave my primary Buy Signal by crossing up through the -100 line.

STO - Stochastics (purple) was very Oversold below the 20 line, and is now upticking through it.

MACD - Moving Average Convergence Divergence - The MACD Histogram (light blue bars) is upticking, and so is the slow line of the MACD (red).

ADX - The DI's of the Average Directional Index (red and green) have started to pinch together again.

RSI - The Relative Strength Index (green at the bottom) is upticking sharply.

Volume will need to increase more if this stock is going to continue to move up.

I like what I see about this company's recent news and the way it's chart looks. I will be following this stock closely for a while to see how this plays out.

Happy Trading,
zigzagman

Stocks to Watch for March 15th: ATAI - CCO - CGIX - JOEZ - ZQK - ATV - BWEN - CNAM - CYTX - WILC:

Stocks to Watch on Monday March 15th, 2010:

LONG:

ATAI:



CCO:



CIGX:



JOEZ:



ZQK:



SHORT:

ATV:



BWEN:



CNAM:



CYTX:



WILC:

ADVENTRX Receives Brand Name Acceptance for ANX-530:

ADVENTRX Receives Brand Name Acceptance for ANX-530:

SAN DIEGO, March 12 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- ADVENTRX Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NYSE Amex: ANX) today announced that the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has accepted the proposed proprietary name "Exelbine™" for the Company's product candidate ANX-530 (vinorelbine injectable emulsion).

"We are pleased with the FDA's response to our proprietary name request and look forward to continued regulatory progress on ANX-530," said Brian M. Culley, Chief Executive Officer of ADVENTRX.

Following completion of its review process, the FDA concluded that "Exelbine" is acceptable provided the information presented by ADVENTRX regarding the safety of interchanging ANX-530 with other vinorelbine injectable products is confirmed during review of an ANX-530 New Drug Application (NDA).

As previously announced, the Company submitted an NDA for ANX-530 to the FDA in December 2009. In March 2010, the Company announced that it had received a refusal-to-file letter from the FDA regarding its ANX-530 NDA submission. In the letter, the FDA indicated that the data included in the December 2009 NDA submission from the intended commercial manufacturing site was insufficient to support a commercially-viable expiration dating period. The FDA identified only this one chemistry, manufacturing and controls (CMC) reason for the refusal to file. ADVENTRX has requested a face-to-face meeting with the FDA to understand its requirements and define the path to a successful filing of an ANX-530 NDA at the earliest possible time.

About ADVENTRX Pharmaceuticals:

ADVENTRX Pharmaceuticals is a specialty pharmaceutical company whose product candidates are designed to improve the performance of existing cancer treatments by addressing limitations associated principally with their safety and use. More information can be found on the Company's web site at www.adventrx.com.

http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/adventrx-receives-brand-name-acceptance-for-anx-530-87453562.html

ANX closed at $0.21 yesterday, and hit $0.29 in the pre-market session this morning:

Analyst's Upgrade And Raise Price Targets For ITMN - InterMune Inc.

Thomas Weisel Partners More Than Double InterMune (ITMN) Price Target To $55

http://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/166370/thomas-weisel-partners-more-than-doubles-intermune-itmn-price-t

Wells Fargo Upgrades InterMune (ITMN) to Outperform:

http://www.streetinsider.com/Upgrades/Wells+Fargo+Upgrades+InterMune+(ITMN)+to+Outperform/5424826.html

Top 10 Analyst Upgrades and Downgrades (ADI, NLY, BIDU, CVX, ESLR, ITMN, JCG, LMT, SONC, VALE)

Posted: March 10, 2010 at 8:22 am

These are this Wednesday’s top 10 analyst upgrades, downgrades, and initiations seen from Wall Street morning research calls:

Analog Devices Inc. (NYSE: ADI) Raised to Outperform at Bernstein.
Annaly Capital Management (NYSE: NLY) Cut To Neutral at JPMorgan.
Baidu, Inc. (NASDAQ: BIDU) Reiterated Buy but Target raised to $630 from $550 at Citigroup.
Chevron Corp. (NYSE: CVX) Cut to Neutral at BofA/Merrlill Lynch.
Evergreen Solar (NASDAQ: ESLR) Started as Hold at Wunderlich.
InterMune Inc. (NASDAQ: ITMN) Raised to Buy at ThinkEquity; Raised to Outperform at Wells Fargo.
J. Crew Group, Inc. (NYSE: JCG) Cut to Hold at Citigroup.
Lockheed Martin (NYSE: LMT) Raised to Neutral at Macquarie.
Sonic Corp. (NASDAQ: SONC) Raised to Buy at KeyBanc.
Vale SA (NYSE: VALE) Cut to Neutral at UBS.

http://247wallst.com/2010/03/10/top-10-analyst-upgrades-and-downgrades-adi-nly-bidu-cvx-eslr-itmn-jcg-lmt-sonc-vale/

Happy Trading,
zigzagman

ITMN - FDA Panel Favors Approval For Intermune Inc. Drug:

FDA panel favors approval for InterMune drug:

By: The Associated Press | 09 Mar 2010 | 04:47 PM ET

WASHINGTON - Federal health advisers on Tuesday voted in favor of an experimental drug from InterMune Inc., despite mixed evidence of whether it provides significant benefits for patients with a rare lung disease.

The Food and Drug Administration's panel of lung experts voted 9-3 to recommend approval of the company's drug pirfenidone. That recommendation followed a narrower 7-5 vote that the drug provides a "clinically meaningful benefit" for patients with idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis, an often fatal lung disease for which there are no approved drugs.

The FDA is not required to follow the group's advice, though it often does. The agency is scheduled to make its final decision by May 4.

Ultimately, the lack of options for patients with idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis, or IPF, appeared to sway a majority of panelists in the drug's favor.

"IPF is a fatal disease and you have to offer your patients hope," said Karen Gottesman, the panel's patient representative. "If this drug can offer your patients even a smidgen of hope, it's worth approving."

Intermune submitted two studies for its drug to FDA, measuring ability to improve lung function in patients. While one study showed a statistically significant 4.4 percent increase in lung strength, another failed to achieve significance compared with placebo.

The FDA usually requires two placebo-controlled trials showing meaningful results to grant approval, a fact cited by several panelists who voted against the drug's benefits.

"We have two competing studies here," said Dr. Peter Terry, of Johns Hopkins University Medical Institutions. "Based on the agency's requirement for substantial evidence I don't think this meets the criteria for clinically meaningful benefit."

Most panelists agreed the drug's effect was modest and that long-term follow-up would be needed to determine whether it can extend patient survival. While slightly more patients taking pirfenidone survived compared with patients taking placebo, there wasn't an overall survival benefit in the company's studies, according to the FDA.

"Some people were expecting a cure, this is not a cure," said Dr. Richard Honsinger, of Los Alamos Medical Center. "This drug just slows the decline caused by the disease."

In a separate vote, panelists ruled 9-3 that pirfenidone was safe for patients. Most panelists said side effects such as nausea, rash and fatigue were tolerable, considering the fatal nature of the disease.

While some pirfenidone patients experienced abnormalities in liver function, those issues mostly resolved after patients discontinued the drug.

About 200,000 people in the U.S. and Europe have idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis. The disease causes scarring and stiffening of the lungs, which makes it increasingly difficult to breathe over time. The cause of the disease is unknown.

Intermune Chief Medical Officer, Dr. Steven Porter said he was "very excited," by the meeting's outcome.

"I think it was a very productive discussion and the data spoke for itself," said Porter.

If approved, InterMune plans to market the drug in the U.S. under the name Esbriet. The drug was approved in Japan in October 2008, where it is sold under the name Pirespa by Shionogi and Co.

Shares of the Brisbane, Calif.-based company were halted in trading Tuesday ahead of the FDA's meeting. The stock closed at $23.30 Monday.

Last week shares jumped to their highest point since 2007 after the FDA posted its review of pirfenidone.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/35783566/site/14081545/for/cnbc/

Here is one of the first PR's I saw after the FDA Advisory Panel gave it's decision:

U.S. FDA Panel Backs InterMune Lung Drug:

Tue Mar 9, 2010 3:39pm EST

Final agency decision expected by May 4.

SILVER SPRING, Md., March 9 (Reuters) - U.S. medical advisers backed InterMune Inc's (ITMN.O) experimental drug to treat lung scarring on Tuesday, saying it should be approved for patients with the rare fatal condition.

In a 9-3 vote, the Food and Drug Administration's outside experts said the company's data were strong enough to support use of the drug, pirfenidone, for patients with idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF).

InterMune is seeking FDA approval of pirfenidone to help mitigate worsening lung function in patients with IPF, a fatal condition in which the lungs scar for no apparent cause.

Trading in shares of InterMune was halted ahead of the panel's vote.

http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSN0924859020100309

Here are two charts showing ITMN's big move up as soon as the trading halt was lifted at 4:30pm ET...It immediately shot up to the $38.00 range, and it's After-Hours high was $38.62

ITMN closed yesterday at $23.30 and the closing price on March 4th was $14.31

CONGRATULATIONS! to ITMN, and it's shareholders.

This is great news for the people who need this drug, since there is currently no approved drug for their condition.

Happy Trading,
zigzagman





ITMN closed yesterday at $23.30 and the closing price on March 4th was $14.31 !!!...

InterMune Inc. - ITMN Shares Hang on FDA Playing the “make or break” event with options:

InterMune (ITMN) Shares Hang on FDA Playing the “make or break” event with options:

by Kevin Cook March 8, 2010 4:06 EST

Kevin Cook is an options instructor for the Options News Network. He was an institutional foreign exchange market maker and arbitrageur for nine years, where he worked with futures.

http://www.onn.tv/buy-and-trade/intermune-itmn-shares-hang-on-fda/

We know that the stocks of young biotech companies with experimental drugs in the works trade “make or break” around FDA approval events. Friday’s action in InterMune (NASDAQ: ITMN), which sent the shares up over 60%, was another classic example and something we had been anticipating since January 4th when the FDA granted “Priority Review” status to ITMN’s idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis drug, pirfenidone.

Last week, I decided to write—for the next 20 weeks—about all 20 stocks in my favorite biotech ETF, the FBT. This week was made for ITMN, one of the top-ten holdings, with its scheduled FDA review date of March 9th and stock-moving news posted Friday in briefing documents on the FDA website. The optimism expressed in ITMN’s rally is built around speculation that the FDA analysis of pirfenidone’s Phase 3 clinical trials may be more favorable than previously expected.

The final word of approval from the FDA for pirfenidone is not due until May 4th, but the company and investors may be hanging their fortunes on the fact that the findings of Advisory Committee meetings, like tomorrow’s, are often the direction the agency is headed. In other words, while the FDA is not held to judgments by its advisory panels, it usually follows them. Before we look at how options traders might be playing the event, let’s review some of the key facts about InterMune and pirfenidone.

Key Facts on ITMN:

InterMune, Inc. is a biotechnology company focused on developing and commercializing innovative therapies in pulmonology and hepatology. Their only drug approved in the U.S. currently is Actimmune, which treats both CGD and severe, malignant osteopetrosis, two rare congenital disorders.

Pirfenidone is the only drug designed to treat idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF), an unexplained inflammation and scarring of the lungs, which hinders the ability to process oxygen and causes shortness of breath. A progressive disease, symptoms increase in severity and usually result in death within two to five years of diagnosis.

200,000 people are affected by IPF in US and Europe; there are an estimated 30,000 new cases each year.

Pirfenidone is approved and marketed in Japan as Pirespa
FDA granted Fast Track/Priority Review status for the US New Drug Application (NDA) on January 4, 2010.

On Friday March 5, FDA posted a March 9 Review briefings document, signaling that prior criticisms of ITMN research may be alleviating.

Proposed U.S. name for pirfenidone is Esbriet.

Neutral and Bearish Strategies:

For investors and traders who believe that we won’t know enough after tomorrow to take ITMN’s stock above $30 or below $15, this short iron condor offers significantly high implied volatility to temper the risk. We recommended this play in our Trading Ideas section on Friday when it was garnering only $2.50 in total premium. With implied volatility climbing yet again today to over 300%, this iron condor could now collect more than $3.00.



And for those who think that a severe disappointment and pullback is likely after tomorrow, in our OTA Portfolio we looked at a bear ratio put strategy where you could buy a March 17.5 put and sell two 12.5 puts for nearly even money. With essentially zero cash outlay, and a max profit potential of $5.00, this play doesn’t begin to lose money unless the stock falls below $7.50. (The chart below was created with a virtual trading account, something I recommend especially for anyone who wants to experiment with new option strategies).



All of these March strikes have seen significant trading today with the March 30/35 call spread trading over 10,000 by noon and now edging closer to 20,000 contracts each as the day winds down. On the put side, the March 12.5 and 15 puts have seen more than 12,000 contracts trade in each, while the 17.50, 10, and 7.50 strikes all have close to 5,000 contracts. All of these volumes are well above normal and indicate many players positioning for any possible news tomorrow.

Short Interest and Insider Buying:

Also worth noting about ITMN shares is that since the early January announcement about FDA’s track for approval of pirfenidone, short interest in the stock climbed significantly from around 11% of float to near 16%. This may explain much of the move we saw Friday that vaulted the shares from below $15 to above $25 at one point.

And late January saw significant buying by insiders, with Director Jonathan Leff buying 2.1 million shares at $14.10 and Director James Healy exercising 5,000 options at $4.50 per share.

ITMN - InterMune Inc. - A Stock To Watch Next Week - March 8th-12th, 2010:

ITMN - InterMune Inc. - Healthcare - Biotechnology

Website: http://www.intermune.com/wt/home

Friday's news release from the company website that caused the huge gap up at the opening bell:

http://phx.corporate-ir.net/phoenix.zhtml?c=100067&p=irol-newsArticle&ID=1399323&highlight=

Another news release released on Friday:

InterMune Stock Gets Boost as FDA Staff Questions Lung Drug:

http://blogs.wsj.com/health/2010/03/05/intermune-stock-gets-boost-as-fda-staff-questions-lung-drug/?mod=yahoo_hs

By James A. White

The FDA staff said it has a bunch of questions about InterMune’s new drug to slow deteriorating lung functioning. But investors figure the concerns weren’t as bad as they could have been, sending the biotech’s shares soaring.

The stock jumped as much as 74% after FDA reviewers said only one of InterMune’s two late-stage trails for the experimental drug pirfenidone had met its main goal and added that “the clinical significance of the treatment effect size is uncertain.”

The FDA documents, which were released ahead of an advisory panel meeting to discuss the drug Tuesday March 9th, also had a mix of other things to say.

All things considered, an Oppenheimer analyst noted the “tone was less negative than expected,” all things considered and there was room for the drug to still get FDA approval. The shares settled down in later trading, but still finished up nearly 60% for the day.

InterMune often appears on lists of likely biotech takeover candidates. FDA approval of pirfenidone would give it two drugs on the U.S. market.

The new drug would treat idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis, which affects about 200,000 Americans, the majority of whom eventually die of respiratory failure. The FDA noted that there aren’t any approved drugs to treat IPF, although drugs like corticosteroids and drugs that suppress the immune system are used, according to Dow Jones Newswires.

The company also put out material noting that “the slowing of progression in loss of lung volume constitutes a clear benefit to patients,” Reuters said.

Here’s more news that came out on Friday about ITMN:

http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/intermune-announces-posting-of-briefing-documents-for-fda-advisory-committee-meeting-on-pirfenidone-86546937.html

http://www.forbes.com/2010/03/05/intermune-fda-drug-markets-equities-pharma-update.html?partner=yahootix

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/InterMune-Shoots-Higher-On-ibd-3578098094.html?x=0&.v=1

http://www.foxbusiness.com/story/markets/industries/health-care/fda-posts-documents-briefing-new-drug/

The last paragraph of this article mentions ITMN may be a buyout target by a big pharma company:

http://blogs.wsj.com/health/2009/08/21/is-1-billion-is-the-right-price-for-pharma-ma/

Here is some Fundamental Analysis information:

Look at the difference in the numbers shown by the Yahoo Finance and the Finviz.com sites. Notice the differences between the Float numbers, the percentage of shares owned by Institutions, and the percentage of shares owned by Insiders. There is also a large difference in the number and the percentage of shares that are Short.

That's probably due to when each site updates their data. I usually prefer to get my information from Yahoo Finance, because they usually update their data faster than Finviz.com does.

I read on the IHUB message board that Insiders recently purchased 30 million shares, but I haven't been able to verify that yet. That may account for the differences between the Yahoo Finance and the Finviz.com information.

The Yahoo Finance numbers:



The Finviz.com numbers:





Look at all of the Insider Transactions for January 26th, 2010. Insiders started buying again on that date, which is a vote of confidence from the people that run this company:



But here, Yahoo Finance missed Oppenheimer's reiteration of an Outperform rating on January 25th, 2010.

Yahoo Finance:



Finviz.com:



Here is an hourly, daily, and a weekly chart of ITMN. There is a short YouTube video below these chartrs that shows Technical Analysis of these charts.







Here is the Option Chain for ITMN as of the close on Friday March 5th, 2010. These Options expire on the third Friday in March, which is March 19th, 2010:



Here's a nine minute YouTube video that analyzes ITMN's charts:



Happy Trading,
zigzagman