Thursday, February 11, 2010

Video: Technical Analysis of ADVENTRX Pharmaceuticals Daily Chart:


Here is an analysis of ANX's daily chart. It was created yesterday around lunch time, and this was the first day of trading after ANX's CEO Brian Culley gave his presentation at the Bio CEO & Investors Conference.

ANX closed down two cents yesterday. I won't draw any conclusions about that yet, because it will take a few days before potential large and institutional investors decide if they will invest in this company or not.

One reason for the drop in share price yesterday is probably because the day traders bailed out when no new and earth moving news was released at the conference. Many people probably took positions in this stock hoping that there would be a big pop up in the share price right after the presentation. When that didn't happen, they moved on to greener pastures.

It's starting to look like the share price may not move much for the next two to three weeks as we await news from the FDA if the new drug application for ANX-530 will be accepted or not.



Here is an interesting reply to a post I made on the Yahoo Finance message board for ANX, that clarifies a few things very well. This member has my respect, since he works in the field of biotechnology research and knows quite a bit about the process of bringing new drugs to market through FDA aprroval:

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"Gentlemen, I appreciate the attempt at substantive conversation about ANX and its product candidates. I will not comment on the potential stock price both prior to and after the ACCEPTANCE (not approval) of the NDA filing. What I would like to do is clear up some misunderstandings expressed in these two posts.

First, what we are awaiting in March is the acceptance of the filing. This is a confirmation that the NDA was properly FORMATTED and prepared according to protocol. This does not reflect in any way on the merits of the application (ie:chances for approval). If there are filing inadequacies, they will be noted and subsequently corrected by the company. That is the only delay possible. The agency will not/cannot request additional trials, as this would amount to a judgement on the merits of the application which will not be done until 10 months from the filing date.

To be clear: there is NO POSSIBILITY for priority review or fast rack status. This drug does not represent the treatment of unmet medical need as per FDA guidelines. Please don't debate this just look it up if you have questions. 10 months will be the review time.

Next. You made some reference to news re: 514 about an NDA filing. The guidance on this program was given yesterday, and quite clearly to those that listened to the presentation.

Anx must prepare a package laying out its arguments as to why the increase in the plasma concentration of docetaxol during the first 3 hours of administration of 514 is not relevant to prevent a finding of bioequivilence. After the filing of this package, the FDA has 60 days to set up a meeting. AFTER this meeting, the company will announce future plans for 514. Hence no surprise announcements, until May at the earliest.

And again, just for terminology and expectations, the FDA will not "approve" 530 in two weeks. The will hopefully accept the filing of the application for approval in October.

I know there are well meaning longs on this board, but it really would help to have all of the facts and not create expectations on erroneous premises.

As I have said many times here, I am long a large number of shares and am looking forward to the setting of the PDUFA date for October for 530. But I don't personally see the properly formatted application being a huge share price event. I frankly expect it as anyone who is long this stock should. It will not be a surprise.

514 in May is the news that blows the lid off of this stock. Is 3 months really that long to wait for an "investor?"

Not this one. GLTA

Laser

Sentiment : Strong Buy"

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Happy Trading!,
zigzagman