End of the Week - S&P 500's Daily & Weekly Charts:

http://stockmarketchartanalyst.blogspot.com/

This will be one of the most interesting weeks this Quarter! By the opening bell on Wednesday, we will know the outcome of the mid-term election for the US House and Senate. It will be interesting to know the new balance of power there, but the market may or may not react much because it has already baked that outcome in. It's clear that the Democrats will lose a number of seats in both houses of Congress. The most important task for them to complete before the end of the year will be to decide if the Bush Tax Cuts will be continued, eliminated, or some kind of compromise is made to extend some (or all) of them.

Also on Wednesday at 2:15pm ET, we will hear what the Fed is going to do in the way of Quantitative Easing - Part 2 (QE2). The amount of QE2 they decide upon will be critical to how the market reacts to it. Not enough, say under $500 Billion, and the market probably will react in a negative way. Too much, say over $1 Trillion, and the market may not like that either. Anywhere between $500 Billion to $750 Billion is what the market is hoping for. And to hear the details of how the Fed will go about it will also get some kind of reaction from the market.

We are still in the middle of third quarter Earnings Reporting season, and it is also a very busy week on the Economic Calendar. So how the market moves this week will be decided by the outcome of the mid-term election, what the Fed decides to do with QE2, and the reaction to all of the week's Earnings and Economic Reports.

The Daily Chart shows a lot of Volatility last week, but by the end of the week the Index only closed up by 0.18 Points, and only up 0.02% I've been mentioning the Bearish Divergences on the CCI, STO, and MACD Histogram for a few weeks now, and with diminishing Volume every day last week, and large downticks on these three indicators, it looks to me like the market is running out of steam. But...the market was in "wait and see" mode the entire week waiting to see the outcome of the mid-term election, and what the Fed will do about QE2 next Wednesday. Basically, the Index churned (or consolidated) in an uptrend all week, and that is quite often Bullish. A close above the closing price from the previous Friday (10/18/10) with a tall white candlestick with above average Volume would be a breakout into Blue Sky Territory, and would obviously be Bullish...So would be a close above the 200Day Moving Average on the Weekly Chart, that currently sits at 1194.20



The Weekly Chart appears to be running out of steam. Volume has diminished the past three weeks, and the CCI has downticked the past two weeks. It is still in very Overbought territory in the mid-90's, and the fast line of Stochastics is now below the slow line. And the MACD Histogram also downticked last week. The Doji candlestick that formed this week may very well be a reversal signal this time, since the intra-week high last Monday finally tagged the 200Day Moving Average early in the session, and then pulled back hard the rest of the day to form a Bearish Shooting Star candlestick on the Daily Chart (see the daily chart above). A close below the low of the week from last week would be confirmation that the Doji candlestick formed last week was indeed a reversal signal.



I see a possible Bearish Double-Top Chart Pattern developing on the Daily Chart:



IF there is to be a Pullback, the Fibonacci's 61.8% level on the Weekly Chart is 1136.88 but there are some minor levels of Support to break below before it can get down to there.



The Commitment Of Traders (COT) chart is showing Large & Institutional Traders have been moving to the Short Side for a while now. These kinds of traders are hardly ever wrong. It is the Small and Individual Traders that are usually behind the curve.



It is a very busy week for Earnings Reports and the Economic Calendar. There are too many S&P 500 companies reporting this week to name them all, but the most important Economic Reports due out this week are signified by gold and red stars. A gold star report has the potential to move the market a small amount, and a red star has the potential to move the market in a big way. One of the most important reports due out this week besides the FOMC Announcement on Wednesday at 2:15pm is the Employment Situation report for the month of October, which is due out on Friday an hour before the opening bell:

http://online.barrons.com/public/page/barrons_econoday.html



I posted a number of very interesting news articles last week. Too many to list all of them here. They are posted on my Twitter page. Many of these articles discuss how effective will QE2 be, plus there are a number of articles about the economy in general and more about the Foreclosure-Gate fiasco.

My Twitter Page:

http://twitter.com/chartaholic

Happy Trading! next week...
It should be an exciting one!...
Stay Nimble...It could go either way...
zigzagman/chartaholic